Obama Visit to Afghanistan on Bin Laden Death Anniversary

 President Obama arrived unannounced under the cover of darkness at Bagram Airbase, south of Kabul at 10:30pm local time.  He boarded a helicopter, which took him t Kabul, the Afghan capital.

The visit happens to coincide with the first anniversary of the death of Osama Bin Laden, but officials said that the visit was purely coincidental and was driven by the "Strategic Partnership Agreement, which had been negotiated approximately 20 months with officials.  President Obama is expected to address the American people at 7:30 pm Eastern Time.  He is expected to mention the death of Osama bin Laden in this evening's speech.

The President has been criticized for politicizing the Bin Laden death, especially after an attack ad was released that seemed to suggest that the President's Republican opponent would not have made that decision.  Vice President Biden made a similar comment.

The Strategic Partnership Agreement was finalized on April 22nd after 20 months of negotiations and discussions with NATO allies.

The Treaty, which deals with the residual U.S. force after withdrawal, the training and maintenance of Afghan Security Forces was in danger of collapsing based on the funding guarantee given by the U.S.  Earlier this week, Afghan President Hamid Karzai had demanded that the U.S commit in writing to at least $2Billion out of the estimated $4.2 Billion needed to fund Afghanistan.

While Afghan forces are expected to level at 228,500 by 2017, they are expected to grow to 352,000 soldiers and police officers this year, but the future size is under discussion.  A force of this size has to be funded, trained, equipped and paid.  The price tag for the force is approximately $4.1 Billion, of which the United States is expected to pay $2.3 Billion.  The remainder is to be split among NATO allies and the Afghan government. 

U.S. officials told reporters that the objective was to sign the agreement on Afghan soil. It has five  components: transition, training, partnership, reconciliation and rebuilding.  The emphasized the point that the U.S. learned the lesson of 1989 and will not abandon Afghanistan. 

The agreement was signed in the atrium of the King's Residence, which is part of the Presidential Palace. 

President Obam said that the U.S. and Afghanistan will be long term partners in combating terrorism and in training Afghan security partners.  He said that Afghanistan has a friend and partner in the U.S. and that together we'll achieve the goal of destroying Al Qaeda. 

The signing of this agreement clears the way for the exit of NATO from Afghanistan.  Australia will remove its contingent of 500 troops by 2013, Britain is withdrawing 500 troop, while the U.S. is expected to draw down 30,000 troops by the end of the year.

The details of the agreement have not yet been announced, including the residual NATO forces.  Both Canada and Australia have received a request from the U.S. to keep a small contingent of forces in Afghanistan to assist with training and pushing back the Taliban.

What About the Future of Afghanistan

Coordinated Attacks in Kabul and Across Eastern Afghanistan

On the heels of a G8 leaders conference, just a few days ago, the Taliban have claimed responsibility for at least five coordinated attacks in Kabul.  According to the Taliban the attack targeted NATO headquarters, the British and German Embassies, the Afghan parliament building, the Serena and Kabul Star hotels, and sites along Darulaman road, where the Russian Embassy is located.  Insurgents also targeted Afghan and NATO installations in the capital cities of Nangarhar, Logar and Paktia provinces.

"In all these attacks, tens of mujahedeen fighters equipped with light and heavy weapons, suicide vests, RPGs, rockets, heavy machine-guns and hand grenades are attacking their targets," Zabiullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman,  said in the email.


"Our initial reports indicate that a large number of foreign forces, Afghan police and army are killed and wounded."

Taliban casualty rates are often exaggerated and ISAF has confirmed to reporters that no NATO forces were killed.  

NATO's Plans for the Way Ahead in Afghanistan

While the number of NATO casualties this year so far have been significantly reduced, reaching a high of 711 in 2010 and 566 last year, there are still too many killed, with no apparent progress.  NATO insists that the transition is going well and that Afghan Security Forces are taking over the responsibility for their country's security.  Apparently security for Afghan government buildings in Kabul is being handled by Afghan Security forces.  

NATO's intend is to complete the transition to Afghan Security forces by the end of 2014, with a yet determined number of NATO forces remaining in Afghanistan.  The details are expected to be worked out in a NATO Afghanistan conference next month.  

G8 leaders were at a  meeting, chaired by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to pledge their continued engagement in Afghanistan, for at least the next decade.  

"With the gradual transition to hand responsibility for Afghan security to the Karzai government, leaders of the G8 have reaffirmed their commitment for the long ranging engagement in Afghanistan.  The leaders reaffirmed their strong commitment to Afghanistan’s sovereignty and national unity.  They urged Afghan President Hamid Karzai to combat corruption and work on improving governance.

While NATO intends to handover security responsibilities to the war torn nation by 2014, the country obviously has several problems to overcome.  Afghan Security Forces need to be paid, just as infrastructure requires funding.  There will likely be some US/NATO troops left in Afghanistan, the scope and size, which is yet to be determined.  This will also require a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA)."   Read More Here

The White House and  NATO, including General John Allen, ISAF Commander, continue on the message that progress is being made.  While the training numbers of Afghan forces may be met, the question still remains on how reliable these troops will be.  

Since the Qoran burnings and the massacre of 17 civilians by a US serviceman, the Taliban have cranked up their attacks.  There have been the so called "Green on Blue" attacks, where members of the Taliban have infiltrated Afghan Security Forces and killed NATO soldier, including two in the Interior Ministry.

Attempts to negotiate with the Taliban have not yielded any results.  How likely is it that the Afghan government will be able to secure the country?  It seems like a high order, since the Taliban want nothing less than rule Afghanistan.  Will the country revert to Taliban rule after NATO leaves?  This is difficult to answer, however in a tribal society, loyalty to Hamid Karzai has to be pretty thin.

Afghanistan doesn't have the title of "Graveyard of Empires" without reason.