U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, Clinton

Diplomatic tensions are extremely high between the U.S. and China in view Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng.  The story has taken several twists and turns since it first made the news yesterday.  Initially the State Department said that the dissident had left the embassy of his own free will.  Chen said that he wanted to stay in China with his family and that he had received assurances for his and his family's safety. 

The story later changed when Chen apparently told AP that an embassy official had told him that the life of his family was threatened.  Chen is now asking to leave the country on the plane with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.   In the meantime the Chinese have demanded an apology for the U.S. interfering in its internal affairs.  There are also questions how a blind Chinese man got past the Chinese guard at the U.S. embassy without showing an ID.   Was he picked up by embassy staff in a diplomatic vehicle? 

To say the least this issue has overshadowed the U.S. -China Strategic and Economic Dialogue.  It will be interesting how much support the U.S. will get from China on the global economy and in regard to North Korea, Iran and Syria.   China is hungry for oil and is not likely to want to stop importing crude oil from Iran.  How much leverage does the United States really have? 

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Opening Statement

I know that both Secretary Geithner and I greatly appreciate all the work done by both of our delegations and the months of preparation for this meeting. I’ve read readings from President Obama and a letter from him expressing how important the Strategic and Economic Dialogue is to the U.S.-China relationship and how important this relationship is to the United States.

As President Obama says, the United States remains committed to building a cooperative partnership based on mutual benefit and mutual respect. Since we launched this dialogue three years ago, high-ranking officials from both our governments have criss-crossed the Pacific dozens of times. Our relationship has grown closer and more consequential, and the web of connections that link our nations is increasing.

As a result, this dialogue is even more necessary today than it was when it began, and the eyes of the world are once again upon us. The Chinese people and the American people looking for us to work together for their benefit, and the international community looking to us to work together for the world’s benefit; in today’s world, no global player can afford to treat geopolitics as a zero-sum game, so we are working to build a relationship that allows both of our countries to flourish without unhealthy competition or conflict, while at the same time meeting our responsibilities to our people and to the international community.

We both know that we have to get this right because so much depends upon it. We also both know that our countries have become thoroughly, inescapably interdependent. As President Obama and I have said many times, the United States believes that a thriving China is good for America, and a thriving America is good for China. So we have a strong interest in China’s continued economic growth and if China’s rising capabilities means that we have an increasingly able and engaged partner in solving the threats we face to both regional and global security, that is all good.

Now, having said that, we understand too that building a cooperative, resilient, mutually beneficial relationship is not easy. That’s why this dialogue is so critical as well as the Strategic Security Dialogue that took place here yesterday. We are discussing how the talks are opening economic activity to advance prosperity, support innovation, and improve the lives of people, how to promote greater military transparency to avoid misunderstandings, to build trust and maintain mutual
stability, how to tackle some of the world’s most urgent crises from climate change to proliferation.

The United States welcomes China’s increased engagement on the highest priority regional and global issues, and in our strategic track, we will be discussing these. For example, on Iran, the United States and China share the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. And we had a productive first meeting as members of the P-5+1 in Istanbul, and are looking forward to the next meeting in Baghdad because we both understand it is critical to keep pressure on Iran to meet its international obligations, to negotiate seriously, and prove that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.
In Syria, we are absolutely committed to end the brutal violence against civilians, and therefore, it is essential that the international community work together to hold the regime and the others involved in violence accountable, because regrettably, the Security Council on which we both serve as current members is at stake.

Regarding North Korea, the missile launch seems to suggest that Pyongyang actually used improved relations with the outside world not a goal, but as a threat. And we recognize the role that China is playing and are continuing to work together to make it clear to North Korea that strength and security will come from prioritizing the needs of its people, not from further provocation.

In Sudan and South Sudan, China and the United States are working together. In fact, with me today is the U.S. special envoy to Sudan who is in regular contact with the Chinese special representative for Africa. And I’m pleased that China and the United States joined with a unified international community just hours ago to support a strong UN security resolution that provides unambiguous support for the African Union roadmap.

Our countries are addressing everything from cyber security to the changes and reforms going on in Burma to piracy and so much else, because we know that we are working to better the lives of our people and a better future for all humanity. Now of course, as part of our dialogue, the United States raises the importance of human rights and fundamental freedoms because we believe that all governments do have to answer to citizens’ aspirations for dignity and the rule of law, and that no nation can or should deny those rights.

As President Obama said this week, a China that protects the rights of all its citizens will be a stronger and more prosperous nation, and of course, a stronger partner on behalf of our common goals. The conversations we have here in Beijing reflect how much the U.S.-China relationship has grown in the 40 years since President Nixon came to China. Then, we had hardly any ties to speak of; now, we work together. I think it’s fair to say China and the United States cannot solve all the problems of the world, but without our cooperation, it is doubtful any problem can be solved. And so we are working as we go forward with our dialogue, seeking opportunities for engagement, building ties that are not only between governments but family, friends, entrepreneurs, students, scholars, artists, and so much else.

Tomorrow, I will attend the annual meeting of U.S.-China Consultation on People-to-People Exchanges, and we will discuss the progress we’re making, including for our 100000 Strong Education Initiative that will increase significantly the numbers and diversity of American students studying in China.

So I wish to thank our hosts for their gracious hospitality once again, and pledge that we will continue to work together in a true spirit of partnership and mutual respect for the mutual benefit of our two nations. Thank you very much.

Chen to Stay in Beijing - China Demands Apology

China has promised Chinese legal activist Chen Guangcheng that he can pursue a university education in a safe environment.  Hillary Clinton said that the blind legal activist has left the U.S. Embassy on his own accord and in accordance with U.S. values.

Last week, Chen had fled 20 months of house arrest and sought refuge in the U.S. embassy.  Although the U.S. neither confirmed or denied his presence in the embassy, this set up a delicate diplomatic battle between the U.S. and China.

On his way to Chaoyang Hospital, Chen called his lawyer confirming that he was free with clear assurances from the Chinese government.

"'I'm free. I've received clear assurances."'

 Hillary Clinton's Statement:

I am pleased that we were able to facilitate Chen Guangcheng’s stay and departure from the U.S. embassy in a way that reflected his choices and our values. I was glad to have the chance to speak with him today and to congratulate him on being reunited with his wife and children.
Mr. Chen has a number of understandings with the Chinese government about his future, including the opportunity to pursue higher education in a safe environment. Making these commitments a reality is the next crucial task. The United States government and the American people are committed to remaining engaged with Mr. Chen and his family in the days, weeks, and years ahead.

Clinton is in Beijing for high level strategic talks.  This appears to be another diplomatic victory for Hillary Clinton, but time will tell how the Chinese government behaves after Clinton's departure.

The Chen affair drew an angry response from Beijing, which demanded an apology from the U.S. for interference in its internal affairs.

"China is very unhappy over this. The US action is an interference in China’s internal affairs and China cannot accept it," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said.
"China demands that the US apologise and thoroughly investigate this incident, deal with the people who are responsible and ensure these types of incidents do not occur again," he said.

A U.S. official said that there would be no repeat of the incident, but did not comment on the demand for an apology.

Despite Beijing's demand for an apology, this appears to be another diplomatic victory for Hillary Clinton, but time will tell how the Chinese government behaves after Clinton's departure.  Clinton is in Beijing for high level strategic talks.

Update:   A report by the Associated Press,  suggests that Chen Guangcheng was pressured to leave the U.S. embassy against his will amid flimsy promises and possible threats of harm to his family.

House Speaker John Boehner has issued a statement on the latest AP report and America's obligations:

 "Like millions of other Americans, I have followed the story of Chen Guangcheng with admiration for his courage and concern for his safety and that of his family. I am deeply disturbed by the most recent report by the Associated Press, which suggests Chen Guangcheng was pressured to leave the U.S. embassy against his will amid flimsy promises and possible threats of harm to his family. In such a situation, the United States has an obligation to stand with the oppressed, not with the oppressor. Having handed Chen Guangcheng back over to the Chinese government, the Obama administration is responsible for ensuring his safety. While our economic relationship with China is important and vital to the future of people in both countries, the United States has an obligation to use its engagement with China to press for reforms in China’s human rights practices, particularly with respect to the reprehensible 'one-child’ policy."

NATO Foreign Ministers to Discuss Future of Afghanistan

NATO Foreign Ministers will meet for two days, starting today to discuss their withdrawal from Afghanistan.  The talks are being held ahead of an Afghanistan Summit to be hosted by President Obama in Chicago on May 20th and 21st.  The talks are also expected to cover the European Missile protection shield.  The missile shield is opposed by Russia.

There has been an upsurge of violence in Afghanistan after the Quran burnings and the massacre of 17 civilians last month.  Night raids by US Special Forces have also been a subject of contention, although the US has reached a deal with the Karzai government.  These talks will primarily focus on the funding of Afghan Security Forces after the NATO withdrawal.

While Afghan forces are expected to level at 228,500 by 2017, they are expected to grow to 352,000 soldiers and police officers this year but the future size is under discussion.  A force of this size has to be funded, trained, equipped and paid.  The price tag for the force is approximately $4.1 Billion, of which the United States is expected to pay $2.3 Billion.  The remainder is to be split among NATO allies and the Afghan government.

The US and Afghanistan are presently in the process of discussing a Strategic Partnership Agreement.  Afghan President Hamid Karzai has demanded that the funding be entrenched in the agreement.  Karzai said although there has been verbal agreement on $4 Billion, he wants at least $2 Billion entrenched in the agreement.  The US wanted the agreement signed prior to the Chicago summit.

While there is a timetable of NATO withdrawal by the end of 2014, the plan has always stipulated that it depended on the conditions on the ground.  Despite the recent upsurge in violence, including the attacks in Kabul and across Afghanistan last weekend, NATO insists that the amount of  violence is down from last year.

Commenting on the attacks, aaNATO spokeswoman, Oana Lungescu, said on Monday, "Clearly we still face security challenges.  "This was not the first such attack and I do not expect it to be the last.
But such attacks don't change the transition strategy, they don't change the goal and they don't change the timeline that we all agreed to at the Lisbon summit in November 2010."

Regardless,  training Afghan Security Forces is still a formidable challenge and comes amid security concerns, particularly the infiltration of Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters into these forces.  NATO seems bound and determined to end its commitment in Afghanistan.  With a war weary public who can blame them.  The picture may not be as rosy as they claim though.

The Missile Protection shield is another contentious issue, which the Russians are not too happy about.   The missiles are expected to be deployed across Europe.  Hillary Clinton is expected to meet with Russia's Foreign Minster, Sergei Lavrov, on Thursday.  The meeting is hoped to ease Russia's  concerns on the missile protection shield.

Vladimir Putin was invited to the summit in Chicago next month, but he is not expected to attend.

A lot of work is ahead of NATO ministers to balance the needs of Afghanistan, establish base line funding and convince the Russians to participate in the missile shield.  For the sake of Afghanistan, let's hope their efforts bear fruit.

G8 Leaders Affirm Afghanistan Engagement

With the gradual transition to hand responsibility for Afghan security to the Karzai government, leaders of the G8 have reaffirmed their commitment for the long ranging engagement in Afghanistan.  The leaders reaffirmed their strong commitment to Afghanistan’s sovereignty and national unity.  They urged Afghan President Hamid Karzai to combat corruption and work on improving governance. 

While NATO intends to handover security responsibilities to the war torn nation by 2014, the country obviously has several problems to overcome.  Afghan Security Forces need to be paid, just as infrastructure requires funding.  There will likely be some US/NATO troops left in Afghanistan, the scope and size, which is yet to be determined.  This will also require a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).  

Afghanistan is a tribal nation, which will make governing from the centre virtually impossible unless local warlords and tribal leaders support a central government. 

The meeting on Afghanistan, which was held at Blair House, chaired by Secretary of State Clinton.  The G8 leaders renewed their support for an Afghan-led reconciliation process and vowed to help strengthen Afghan forces.  A joint statement said:

“The ministers reaffirmed the agreement reached in Bonn for sustainable levels of financial support, consistent with the Kabul process, toward Afghanistan’s economic development and security-related costs as part of their enduring engagement with Afghanistan through 2014 and into the transformation decade (2015-2024).”

The statement acknowledged that significant progress had been made, however much more must be done on human rights, international terrorism, respect of the Afghan constitution and for the right of women.

 “Reconciliation must contain the reaffirmation of a sovereign, stable and united Afghanistan; the renunciation of violence; the breaking of ties to international terrorism; and the respect for the Afghan constitution, including its human rights provisions, notably the rights of women."

While G8 leaders acknowledged the traditions and religion of Afghanistan, they said that it must coincide with international human rights and obligations under humanitarian law.  They also urged the Afghan government to  enact reforms to address corruption, enhance the rule of law and foster a business and legal environment conducive to private investment.

This may be a high order for President Hamid Karzai, who has been accused of corruption and election fraud.  There is also still the issue on how to deal with the Taliban and the Pakistani government.  Unquestionably relations with Pakistan will be the key to failure or success of the Afghan mission. 

While there will be reduced costs for the military presence in Afghanistan, significant funds to prop up the government an economy will be needed for years to come, at least another decade.