Reflection on the Alberta Election

Albertans seemed to have send a clear message on Monday's election.  The message was, although we're dissatisfied with the Progressive Conservative Party (PC), we're not quite ready to embrace the conservatism of the Wildrose Party.  The PC party, with the help of Liberals have moved Alison Redford's Red Tories further to the left.  Regardless, the Wildrose Party received 34% support of Albertans, primarily in the south east corner of the province.

Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party ran a good campaign for approximately two weeks, highlighting the excessive spending, corruption and broken promises of the PCs.  Wildrose rolled out its policy and clearly differentiated itself from the cronyism of the progressive conservatives.  Then the campaign went off the rails.  Redford's PCs were able to divert off the issues and made the campaign about conscience issues, intolerant remarks and climate change.  None of these issues had much to do with the campaign, but were damaging to Wildrose.

Raj Sherman, Liberal Party leader, courageously left the PC party over health care and the emergency room situation.  His campaign and accusations of bigotry in the Wildrose Party resonated with his voters to the point that they ran in droves to the PCs.  His Liberal Party, which received 26% of the popular vote in the 2008 elections, only netted 10% on Monday.   His supporters found a new home in Redford's PC party or Brian Mason's NDP, which gained four seats.

Despite her majority, Redford has a few promises to keep.  She must satisfy the environmentalists, get harder on the oil and gas companies in the province and meet the expectations of the national media.  She has to find the money for her promises that clearly exceeded her budget.  These include 140 family care centres, $650 Million in post secondary education investment,

Redford said the clinics’ cost will be borne by existing Alberta Health Services funding and won’t require additional government dollars.

She estimated the total cost of the clinics at about $3.4 billion but said that will come from the $3.9 billion already budgeted for primary health care.

“A very big part of what we want to do is change the way that we’re providing primary health care,” said Redford.

Savings will come from the clinics because they will use infrastructure that is in some cases underutilized and by bringing health care professionals together to provide services, she said.

But Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith said the clinics have been estimated at $5 million apiece and will cost an additional $700 million on top of the existing health budget.

 Conservative leader Alison Redford on Tuesday announced a three-year, $650 million investment in colleges and universities across Alberta.
The money will benefit NAIT, NorQuest, the University of Calgary, Lethbridge College and Mount Royal University.
“There’s no doubt that post-secondary institutions in this province, no matter where they are, are the key to our future success,” Redford said at an announcement at Bow Valley College on Tuesday morning.
“We’re not just building buildings, we are educating Albertans and we’re educating future workers in this economy. … An investment in Alberta’s post-secondary infrastructure is an investment in Alberta’s future.”

With lawn bowlers in the background, Tory Leader Alison Redford made the latest pitch for the all-important seniors vote in the provincial election campaign.
Redford announced Tuesday in Lethbridge that a re-elected Progressive Conservative government would introduce a $500 senior’s activity tax credit.
The tax credit will cost the province about $24 million. Seniors will be eligible for the credit for physical activities, classes and crafts. Redford said keeping active helps keep seniors healthy.
“Making your lives better makes your family’s lives better and makes your community’s life better,” she said at the Nord-Bridge Senior Citizens Centre.
Earlier in the day, Redford promised $19 million for expansion of a pilot program to help train medical students outside of the province’s two major centres.

She pledged if her party is re-elected to invest $3-billion over 20 years in an energy research authority that will work to improve oil sands technology and environmental outcomes.  The group would be called AOSTRA 2, after the original Alberta Oilsands Technology and Research Authority created by Peter Lougheed when he was premier in 1974.
“In order for us to be able to continue to grow the economy in Alberta, in an environmentally sustainable way, we have to be global leaders with respect to energy development and with respect to environmental sustainability,” Redford said at a campaign stop at Suncor’s reclaimed Wapisiw Lookout in Fort McMurray, Alta.

“It’s going to allow us to continue to develop this wonderful region and the conventional resources that we have. It’s also going to allow us to develop technologies that can be marketed around the world.”

Needless to say all this has to be paid for.  In addition there is the issue of high voltage transmission lines, property rights and Bills 36 and 50.  

The Wildrose Party has obviously been on a sharp learning curve, but has an opportunity during the next four years to make their mark in the legislature.  While Redford has a clear majority, enough noise can be made to stop her from continuing with a PC spending spree, hold her to account, especially on health care and property rights.  There needs to be a full public inquiry on health care, physician intimidation and transmission lines.  Majority should not mean clear sailing for the Redford "Red Tories."

Danielle Smith reflected on the Wildrose flop on Tuesday and blamed party policy rather than the controversy on the sudden surprising turn of the election.

"Smith said she has no regrets for not taking a harder line on the anti-gay and racist sentiments of two candidates.  Some pundits and Wildrose foes say that stance showed a crucial leadership void just as the race entered its last laps.

“I received a lot of phone calls from our own candidates saying how grateful they were that I didn’t throw these two candidates under the bus at the first sign of trouble,” Smith told the Sun.

But she said such candidate banter and other issues, like conscience rights, the party’s stance questioning human-caused global warming and an Alberta agenda on pensions and policing will be reviewed.

“We have to deal with these as a party — these are the issues that caused the most controversy, those are the issues we have to take direction from Albertans,” she said.

“If staying on those issues is causing us problems with Albertans, we’ll have to make the right decisions and modify those policies.

“We have to think seriously about what Albertans said to us.”  Calgary Sun

In summary, Alison Redford has promises to keep and must show how she will pay for them without increasing the province's deficit or raising taxes, the Wildrose Party has to keep Redford to account, gain valuable legislative experience and have a look at some of its candidates and policies for the next election.   Raj Sherman, should he remain leader of the Liberal Party has to figure out how to get his base back into his party's tent, while Brian Mason must keep building on his limited success. 

Election Day in Alberta - Will it Change the Political Landscape?

After twenty eight days on the campaign trail, Albertans head to the polls today.  The election is seen as a referendum on the leadership of Alison Redford, Progressive Conservative,  perceived by many as a bureaucrat and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Party.

Redford was elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives, which have been in power for 41years, after Gary  Mar, a former PC cabinet minister, won the first two ballots, but did not reach the 50% threshold required.  Redford edged ahead on Mar, after the second choices of the third placed candidate were counted.

 After appointing Gary Mar as Alberta's envoy to Hong Kong, Redford ordered the probe and suspended Mar without pay when it was revealed that Mar had allegedly used his office to promote a fundraising event to pay off debts incurred running against Redford in last year's PC leadership race.

Redford had initially asked the Ethics Commissioner to lead the probe, however when he advised Redford that he didn't have the jurisdiction she assigned the case to Peter Watson, who works out of the Premier's office. 

The Rutherford show revealed that Gary Marhad been cleared of ethics violations and reinstated as Alberta's envoy to Hong Kong.  Rutherford quoted anonymous sources.  Alison Redford, who suspended Mar without pay said she had no knowledge of his reinstatement.

 "I didn't know it had been resolved until I heard that it was on Rutherford this morning.  We put in place that process because it is a public service circumstance. It's something that Peter Watson has been dealing with. I haven't been made aware of it so I have no comment on it."

During Redford's campaign there were allegations of doctor and school board intimidation, a refusal to hold a public inquiry on health care delivery and the famous "Do Nothing Committee".  The committee collected $1000 a month and never met for 39 months.  There is also the issue of high voltage transmission lines and property rights.  Let's not forget the Tory get away prior to passing resumption of the legislature.

Redford felt it was important to pass a budget prior to the 28 day election campaign, yet she didn't campaign on it, instead she has made millions in additional promises, without a plan to pay for them. 

While the Progressive Conservative Party in Alberta has been touted, by the national media as a centre of right party, this is no longer the case.  Under Redford the party has placed more emphasis on the "Progressive" label.

Redford says she wants to change the "character" of Alberta.  She has come across as one who knows what is best for Albertans.  PC Party Platform

Redfords main opponent, Danielle Smith, Wildrose Party has run a well organized campaign. The campaign rolled out its platform early, which was based on fiscal responsibility, a balanced budget,  a family pack, an Alberta Energy Dividend, a "Wait time Guarantee" and the Alberta Accountability Act.  Read More Here.

Smith also faced her share of controversies. She refused to criticize two Wildrose candidates after they made, what could be considered, racist and anti-gay comments.  She stated that she was both pro choice and pro gay marriage and that a Wildrose government would not legislate on conscience issues, since those issues were protected in the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.  Nonetheless the fear mongering continued. Yet Redford has MLAs with similar views.

She attracted more criticism in the last week of the campaign for stating that the scientific debate over climate change still hadn't been settled.  She did however state that this was not a reason not to act on climate change.  That part was lost on the national media. 

The Liberal leader Raj Sherman and NDP leader Brian Mason have run a robust campaign.  Both parties say that neither the PC or Wildrose Party can be trusted.  Raj Sherman made a last effort Robocall last night, bashing both leading parties, stating that he would fix health care and "Alberta I have your back."  There has been some talk on strategic voting.  It is not clear how that would play out overall.

What is clear that there will be much larger voter turn-out than in the last election, where only 40% of voters turned out.  For 41 years the Tory Party ruled Alberta and in today's election there is a viable contender. 

Be sure to vote today.  For information on polls across Alberta check out the Elections Alberta Webiste.


PARTY PLATFORMS

Wildrose Eyes Majority


Even if the party were to take 30 seats in rural and small-city Alberta – a conservative estimate – they’d need to win only 14 seats in Calgary and Edmonton to take the province, Mr. Taras said.
Edmonton, which has traditionally been a hotbed of progressive support, is also facing several four-and even fiveway races, making it highly unpredictable.
In Calgary, however, Wildrose is polling well ahead of the Tories.
The Tories, on the other hand, must hold Calgary if they are to prevent a majority Wildrose government.
“Calgary is the place you gotta win, and that’s the difference,” he said.
However, some polling data suggest even Ms. Redford’s affluent downtown seat in Calgary-Elbow may not be safe.
“She’s in the crosshairs,” Mr. Taras said.
Ms. Redford denied her constituency was so divided, saying she had good support from the community.  National Post

Alberta Election - The Last Word - Wildrose set for Sweeping Majority - Poll

Despite the influx of the national media, in an attempt to change the outcome of the Alberta election, Albertans seem to have thumbed their nose at progressives in Toronto and Ottawa.  Danielle Smith and her Wildrose Party are set for a sweeping majority on Monday, according to a Forum Project Inc poll conducted late Saturday. The results of this latest poll confirm the findings of a Sun News poll published on Friday. 

The poll, which shows the Wildrose Party with 41%  over Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives with 32%, while the NDP has 13% and the Liberals at 10%.  The NDP and Liberals are strongest in Edmonton, where they are at 23% and 14% respectively.

The Forum Project Inc poll was conducted with a total of 2010 responses gathered Saturday evening by automated phone response.  

The polling firm president Lorne Bozinoff said that the win is enough for Wildrose to capture 62 of the province's 87 seats.

“We expect to welcome a new majority government to the provincial scene on Monday night,”

Alison Redford's approach was that she wanted to change the character of Alberta.  Most Albertans think that the province's character is just fine.  In addition to this there have been attempts to fear monger against the Wildrose Party, almost to the point that it was described as scary and intolerant.  Yet Redford had enough problems in her own party.

 Despite passing a provincial budget prior to the election, Redford has made all kinds of additional promises and the list keeps piling on.  The question is how it would all get paid for.  Excessive spending has consequences.  One only need to look south of the border to the U.S. with its $16 Trillion and growing deficit.  Sooner or later the chickens come home to roost. 

Alberta is headed for change.  A change that returns the province to fiscal responsibility, property rights and free speech.   A change that will be refreshing.

Wildrose Leads in New Poll - Addresses Tolerance and Bigotry

According to a Sun News Poll, the Wildrose Party has a ten point lead over the Progressive Conservative Party, which would indicate that the Wildrose Party is heading for a victory.  The poll has the  Wildrose Party at 41%, the Progressive Conservatives  at 31%, the Liberals 11% and the  NDP at  12%.  In  Calgary the Wildrose Party leads the Progressive Conservatives  44%  to 29%, while in Edmonton the Progressive Conservatives have a seven point lead at 36% to 29%.  

Despite allegations and a smear campaign to paint the Wildrose Party and its supporters as intolerant and as bigots,  both by the PC Party and Raj Sherman, Liberal Party Leader, who characterized the Wildrose as biots and the PCs at Bullies, there has been little impact in the mind of the voters overall.  The biggest change was probably in the City of Edmonton, which is considered more liberal than Calgary. 

On the campaign trail today, Danielle Smith addressed the issue of intolerance an bigotry head on.  She insisted that the Wildrose Party would not suffer bigots.

"I'm leading a party that is open to all races, beliefs, and religions, and I unequivocally reject and denounce these charges against me or my party." 

"Let me be perfectly clear, a Wildrose government will not tolerate discrimination against any individual based on their ethnicity, religion, beliefs, background, sexual orientation, or disability, period.

Wildrose has laid out a very clear, practical, and affordable plan for Alberta over the course of the campaign, while the increasingly desperate PCs have run up a $7-billion tab of unbudgeted campaign promises.  But this election will also be a historic choice between the Redford PCs' plan to change our character to satisfy someone else's idea of who we should be, and a new Wildrose government that will uphold the traditions of tolerance and individual freedom that have been hallmarks of Alberta's character for over a century."

Danielle Smith addressed these issues early on in the campaign when she gave her stance on conscience issues.  She stated that the was pro-choice an pro-gay marriage, and issue that has been long settled across Canada and during a forum at CBC Edmonton yesterday 19 April she referred to the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, reminding the audience and viewers that those are already protected.

On Wednesday 11 April,  Smith said when her party elected a leader it was clear to them that they elected a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage candidate.

 "When our members elected me they knew they were electing a candidate that was pro-choice and pro-gay marriage.  The only way we're going to be able to become a mainstream, big-tent conservative party capable of forming government is to focus on the issues that matter to Albertans. If I am elected premier, a Wildrose government will not be legislating in areas of morality."  More Here

Danielle Smith couldn't make this more clear.  These issues are nothing but a diversion from the real issues.

The fact is that the Redford Tories have run their course and their leader has been  unable to connect with every day Albertans.  Albertans don't want a flip flopping bureaucrat.  They want a leader. 

Premier Redford Says She Didn't Know Mar Got Reinstated

Yesterday the Rutherford show revealed that Gary Mar, former leadership candidate for the Progressive Conservative Party, had been cleared of ethics violations and reinstated as Alberta's envoy to Hong Kong.  Rutherford quoted anonymous sources.  Alison Redford, who suspended Mar without pay said she had no knowledge of his reinstatement.

"I didn't know it had been resolved until I heard that it was on Rutherford this morning.  We put in place that process because it is a public service circumstance. It's something that Peter Watson has been dealing with. I haven't been made aware of it so I have no comment on it."

This is interesting and both unbelievable, since Redford ordered the probe and suspended Mar without pay when it was revealed that Mar had allegedly used his office to promote a fundraising event to pay off debts incurred running against Redford in last year's PC leadership race.

Gary Mar, who was the forerunner of the PC Leadership contest and had won the first two polls with more than 41%, and only lost in the third ballot, when the second choices of the third place candidate were counted to determine the eventual winner, which was Redford.  

Redford had initially asked the Ethics Commissioner to lead the probe, however when he advised Redford that he didn't have the jurisdiction she assigned the case to Peter Watson, who works out of the Premier's office.  

Redford said that ""At that point it moved to the public service and Peter Watson took on the responsibility and he has carried that responsibility and I have had no part of it."

The whole situation was handled badly and doesn't speak well of Alison Redford's leadership.  There seems to have been a certain overreaction when the incident was first brought to light and for a human rights expert, it seems odd that Redford would have not applied the rule of "Innocent until proven guilty".   It almost smells of vindictiveness.  

New Democratic Party leader, Brian Mason also thinks it was handled badly and that he thinks the information that Mar was reinstated was suppressed.

"The fact she left her challenger for leader hanging for well over a month while his reputation was in the balance was not how you deal with people.  If he violated the ethical guidelines he should have been fired and not treated the way he was.  I think it was frankly suppressed until after the leaders' debate."

Raj Sherman, Liberal Leader, joined he chorus and said that he believed the reinstatement was suppressed.

"She promised change, the day after the election she started making patronage appointments. Mr. Mar is allowed to ask for a job but it is her job to make it fair.  They've been scratching each others' backs for too long and Albertans are getting ripped off."

Mar was appointed as the Hong Kong envoy without competition.  

In  her short few months as Premier, Alison Redford has not really been a shining light.   As soon as she got into office, Redford restored $100 Million to education, without making any adjustments to her budget.  Although she promised to do this within ten days, diligence should have been used to ensure that all other aspects are covered.   It is no surprise that whenever cuts are announced bureaucracies have difficulty in cutting in their own backyard.  Cuts are almost always carried on the backs of teachers.  At the very least the PC government should have conducted a study to see where the education funding is being spend.

Redford's second move was the approval of Bill 50, the portion that approved the Heartland Transmission  Project to the East of Sherwood Park, near Edmonton.  This action was taken despite the fact that a closer examination of the requirement for the transmission lines were needed.

The Alberta Uitilities Commission(AUC) states in its decision that the Alberta Government has taken away the Commission’s legal ability to deal with the costs of the line and whether Bill 50 lines are even needed.  The AUC emphasized in its decision that Cabinet now makes those decisions and Bill 50 prevents the Commission from turning down any Bill 50 line on the grounds that it is not needed or that it is not in the public interest.  More Here

This was followed by the "Do Nothing Committee", a committee that never met for 39 months, but collected $1000 a month for being a member.  Yet Redford didn't think it was necessary to pay back the almost $40,000.  After being shamed by the opposition, she reluctantly asked her party members to pay back $6,000 and after more pressure told them to pay back all of it.  Is this leadership?

A recent TQHQ poll, conducted on April 17th and 18th, with over 1400 respondents, indicates that 51% of Albertans don't think that the Progressive Conservatives deserve to be re-elected, while 28% think they do.  21% are not sure.  Poll Here 

During the last election, Albertans did not have much choice and it resulted in only a 40% voter turn out.  This election seems to have a lot of interest and based on advance polls that opened yesterday and continue today and tomorrow, the turn out has already been high.  The election is on April 23rd.  Regardless of the outcome, polls indicate that the PCs will be  hard pressed to get a majority, if a minority government.  The political landscape is changing in Alberta and not a minute too soon.  41 years of Tory rule is enough.  Yep it's time Alberta.

51% of Albertans say Progressive Conservatives Don't Deserve Re-election

The Wildrose Party has had a rough ride for the past few days and it has lost the party some support in the polls.  A THQ Poll conducted on 17 and 18 April shows that the Wildrose Party 2% support overall in Alberta, while the Progressive Conservatives gained 4%.  The poll, which claims to be accurate +  or - 2.8% polled 1425 people.

When respondents were asked if the Progressive Conservatives deserved to be re-elected, 51% of respondents said no, 28% said yes, while 21% were not sure.

With only a few day left and advance voting already in progress, the race will likely be tight, however it is unlikely that any party will get a clear majority.

Source: THQ Poll conducted 17 and 18 April.

                                      Province   Edmonton  Calgary    Rural

Wildrose                              41%          27%           44%       48%

Progressive Conservative   33%          32%            36%       31%  

NDP                                      11%         18%              5%       12%

Liberal                                  11%         19%            11%         5%

Alberta Party                          3%            3%              3%         3%

51% of Albertans don't think the Progressive Conservatives deserve to be re-elected, with 28% saying they do.  21% are unsure           

I Never thought I'd Vote PC - What will they think of Next

This is an interesting video, which, according to a group of young people, is not associated to a particular party.  The video asks those on the left and centre left to vote for the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party. 

While the PC party says it has nothing to do with the video, Alison Redford said she hoped people would vote PC.  That sounds like a desperate move by a party that has led Alberta for 41 years.  One thing is clear this is no longer the party of Ralph Klein.

Leaders of the NDP and Liberal Party of Alberta urged voters to stick with their initial parties and not vote strategically. 

The complete election campaign has gone off message and is now concentrating on controversial remarks made by members of both the Alison Redford's Tories and the Wildrose Party.  Even the mayors of Alberta's two largest cities have weighed in.

Time to get back on the issues.

Alberta Campaign Trail - Rhetoric and Accusations Heat Up

 With Just a few days left until Albertans go to the poll, it appears that the forerunner in the polls has come under attack for social issues and allegations that they are hiding to protect their lead.  Election campaigns are hectic and often there are scheduling conflicts.  The attack on social issues, quite frankly is a side show.  These are issues that have been settled years ago and are well protected in the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. 

Below are the results of a poll conducted by Inside Forum and a seat projections if an election were held on that day.  Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party still holds a seven point lead over Alison Redford's Tories and the seat projection indicates that the Wildrose Party could gain a possible majority.  You can expect even more knives to come out in the next few days.  Beware of election promises that aren't funded. 

Date                       ABP     LIB     NDP     PC     WR     OTH    Insight Forum Poll
2012/04/16               2         10        12        33       40         2        

Date                       ABP     LIB     NDP     PC     WR     OTH    Seat Projection
2012/04/16     -                     1          5        32       49   

Danielle Smith was accused of dodging an interview with Global TV, when she said she couldn't appear for a live interview this morning.  To deconflict the scheduling problem,  she did a taped interview last night, which was aired by both Global Edmonton and Global Calgary.

Smith explained that she has been arranging pre-taped interview lately because of travel conflicts.  She noted that she needed at least five hours of sleep.  With the hectic of the campaign during the last week this is understandable.  Canadidates, and particularly leaders, are trying to meet as many people as possible.

During the interview at Global Calgary, Smith was asked about candidates that have come under fire for recent controversial remarks.

“I guess I don’t expect politicians to be perfect, and I don’t think Albertans expect politicians to be perfect.  It may well be that we have candidates who could take a little bit more media training and be able to express themselves better.  Part of what we’re bringing to politics, is that we’re not bringing career politicians. We’re bringing together regular men and women who want to get into public office for the right reason, they want to do a public service.  From time to time they’re going to make mistakes, and I’m prepared to forgive some of those mistakes and I think the public is too.” 

This is the line Danielle Smith has taken all along.  Voters will make the decisions on the individual candidates.  It is time for the candidates to get back to the issues and quit the side shows.  Each party has controversial candidates.

 

Alberta Election - On the Campaign Trail April 16th

With an additional unprecedented $7 Billion in promises, Wildrose leader Danielle Smith has asked Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives to come clean on how this would be paid for.  Redford was in a rush to pass a budget prior to dropping the writ. 

While Allan Hunspergers remarks, made in the capacity of a Fundamentalist church pastor are still being kept alive by Redford, the media and he LBGT community, Danielle Smith has stayed on message with the Wildrose platform.  Redford was apparently shocked by the remarks, even though she has a candidate, Ted Morton, in her party with similar radical views.  Smith has made her stance on conscience issue very clear by stating that a Wildrose government would not legislate on conscience issues.  Allan Hunsperger also committed to supporting the party platform in a brief statement yesterday.

"I love people and everybody, I have no intolerance about anyone, but I do have a personal religious view.  My views were my personal religious views.  I also agree with the leader, and Danielle Smith says the Wildrose will not be legislating on contentious social issues."

Danielle Smith, once again reiterated her commitment not to legislate conscience issues.

 "I believe in freedom of religion, and I do believe that religious people do have an opportunity, and should run for public office.  What they believe in their own religious private practice is none of my business," Smith stated. "As a political leader the separation of church and state is there for a reason. We do not want the state interfering in the private religious affairs of our citizens."

Smith previously stated that she was pro-choice and pro-gay marriage.

The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms is well entrenched and he Supreme Court of Canada has ruled on issues like abortion and gay rights.  Time to give the fearmongering a rest. 

Redford came under fire yesterday for comments she apparently made at a private fundraiser.  According to a fundraiser attendee, Redford said that she was still dealing with negative impacts from Klein’s cost-cutting during his reign from 1992-2006.  Klein is suffering from dementia and obviously can't defend himself.  Klein imposed some difficult budget cuts, balanced the budget and ensured that Alberta was debt free, something strange to the PC party now. 

As Redford often does, she reacted.  The comments and criticism caused her to issue a press release.

“There have been questions raised about my commitment to Premier Klein and his legacy. I think it is important to remember, I have been a loyal PC member for the past 32 years, including Premier Klein’s tenure.”

A long time friend of Ralph Klein, with no association to the Wildrose party, criticized Redford's remarks.

 “Leave Ralph Klein alone.  When it comes to Ralph, I am non-partisan. Just leave him alone. This is a man who can’t speak for himself.”

Danielle Smith came under fire for comments she made questioning climate change and said her party would scrap a Progressive Conservative plan to capture greenhouse gases.  She said she would scrap the Progressive Conservative plan to capture greenhouse gases.  She said that she was not denying climate change, but didn't believe in footing a $2 Billion bill on something that is not totally understood.

"We've always acknowledged that our world is in a long-term transition away from carbon fuels.  In the meantime, we want to provide supports to consumers to be able to find energy efficiencies so than can reduce the amount of energy, and amount of emissions." 

Smith said that her government would offer tax rebates to Albertans who made their homes more energy efficient. 

This is without a doubt the most exciting election campaign in Alberta in four decades.  A poll released yesterday has the Wildrose leading with 43%, the PCs at 39%, with Liberals and NDP at 11 and 9% respectively.   The election is on Monday, April 23rd

Alberta Election - A Wildrose Majority is Possible

A poll conducted by Return on Insight, which surveyed 800 Albertans on the 13th and 14th April, shows if an election were held today, the Wildrose Party could form a majority government with 48 of 87 seats in the legislature.   The first column shows the result of the poll, while the second set of numbers shows a possible seat projection. 

 
Date             ABP     EGRN     LIB     NDP     PC     WR     OTH  
2012/04/14     1            -            11         9        36       43     -              Poll


Date            ABP     LIB     NDP     PC     WR     OTH
2012/04/14                1         4         34       48                                     Seat Projection


The Wildrose Party leads with 43 per cent followed by the PCs at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 11 per cent, the NDP at nine per cent and the Alberta Party at one per cent. The poll suggests that the real battleground will be in the cities.   In Calgary, the Tories have a slim four-point lead over Wildrose at 45 per cent support to 41 per cent.  In Edmonton, it's the Wildrose Party with a slight lead of 37 per cent to 31 per cent.

Results of the  poll are accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Alberta Election - The Week in Review

As the Alberta election campaign moves into the final week, it appears that this election will be Danielle Smith's to lose.  With only one week in the campaign left to go, the Wildrose Party has a healthy lead over the incumbent Progressive Conservative Party.  In some polls the Wildrose Party leads by 17 percentage points. 

While the parties rolled out their platforms, the debate, held on April 12th, seemed to be a defining factor.  While Alison Redford appeared stiff and almost rattled near the end of the debate, Danielle Smith seemed to connect with voters, with her no nonsense approach to many issues.  The attempts to demonize her because of conscience issues and lack of experience did not resonate. 

Here is a review of issues discussed thus far in the campaign:

Wildrose Announces Accountabilty Act and MLA Pay  April 9th

Race is Tightening - Leger Poll April 10th

Are Conscience Issues Bogus? April 11th

Liberals Reveal Carbon Levy Plan April 11th

Wildrose Leader Stance on Abortion-Gay Rights April 12th

Alberta Leader's Debate - No Clear Winner April 13th

Voters Declare Danielle Smith Debate Winner

 On  the campaign trail on Friday, Alsion Redford promised to introduce legislation that would make Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) a claimable condition under the Workmen's Compensation Board.  The problem is that this condition is already claimable, according to Wildrose leader Danielle Smith.  Sometimes it pays to do your homework before putting your mouth in motion.  

Danielle Smith also committed to call a full public inquiry into physician intimidation, a measure supported by the New Democrats and Liberals.   

As the campaign winds down toward the election on April 23rd, there should still be a number of surprises.  Alison Redford will have to go full out to try and overcome the impression Albertans have of her.  She comes across as a bureaucrat, who knows best and gives the impression that she leads by committee.   

The Progressive Conservative Party is no longer the party of Ralph Klein, in fact it has almost made a 360 degree turn.  Support in Edmonton is divided evenly between Redford and Smith, while the majority support Danielle Smith in Calgary.  Smith appears to lead in rural Alberta as well.  

Stay tuned.

 

Alberta Election - Voters Declare Danielle Smith Debate Winner

According to an Ipsos poll, taken immediately after the debate, Danielle Smith was chosen as the winner by voters who watched the debate over her opponent Alison Redford.  While the two leader were tied in Edmonton at 27%, in Calgary Smith beat Redford by 6 points in Calgary, 39 to 33%.   Alberta wide Danielle Smith won by a wide margin 46 to 21%.  Combined Smith was chosen by  37% of debate viewers , which is a 9 point lead over runner-up Alison Redford with 28%.  Raj Sherman at 13% and Brian Mason at 10% score well back of the other two leaders, while 13% were undecided.

Smith was more popular among men, who said that she won by a margin of 39 to 27%, while women favoured the Wildrose leader 34 to 28%.  This result is interesting, since it was widely believed that Redford would have greater support from women.

To the question of who lost the debate, viewer chose Alison Redford at 31% and Raj Sherman at 27% most often.  Only 16% chose Danielle Smith or Brian Mason.

Danielle Smith entered the debate with a slight lead in the polls and it was really her debate to lose.  She held her own and appeared to have connected with viewers.  Brian Mason appeared to be honest in his approach to questions, while Redford started out confident, but appeared rattled after a view pointed attacks on her performance as Premier.

During the campaign Redford has flip flopped several times on issues like Members of the Legislative Assembly pay, including the flip flops or indecision on repayment of the bonus received by MLAs who sat on a "Do Nothing Committee".  The reaction of voters is no big surprise.  Redford came across like a UN bureaucrat, who likes to have committees make decisions for her, while Smith appeared decisive.  Smith obviously convince viewers that she is ready for the office of Premier.


"Changing Impressions
If the night is simply about changing impressions, then it could be argued that the NDP’s Brian Mason had the best debate. Four-in-ten (41%) viewers say their impression of Mason improved, compared to only 14% who say their impression worsened (NET = +27).
Next best is Danielle Smith with 40% improved impressions versus 30% worsened impressions (NET = +10).
The evening was essentially neutral for Raj Sherman, who had 35% improved impressions and 34% worsened impressions (NET +1).
Alison Redford was the only leader with more worsened impressions (39%) than improved impressions (24%), for a NET score of -15."  Read More Here

There are ten more days left before Albertans go to the pole.  For the firs time in 41 years Albertans have a choice and this election matters.  During the last election there was only a 40% voter turn out.  This should change.  What will Alison Redford promise next?

Alberta Leader's Debate - No Clear Winner

Alberta's Leaders appeared in a 90 minute media moderated debate last night.  Although there was no clear winner, Progressive Conservative leader Alison Redford, who appeared confident at the beginning of the debate, appeared rattled during the final segment.  41 years of Tory rule had taken their toll.  Redford, who found it necessary to pass a budget prior to dropping the writ, did not run on her budget, but had introduced an additional $1 Billion of spending in her election platform.  Brian Mason's New Democrats had introduced a platform that is costed at $1.9 Billion, Raj Sherman's Liberals platform at $820 Million, while Danielle Smith's platform is estimated to cost $308 Million. The figures have been provided by the Canadian Taxpayer Association Party Platform Spending .

With this background, the leaders fast questions and challenged each other.  While the debate was seen to be a contest between Alison Redford and Danielle Smith, Redford soon came under fire by Liberal leader Raj Sherman and the NDPs Brian Mason.  The format consisted of an opening statement by each leader of 45 seconds.  Questions were limited to 20 seconds with answer at 45 seconds, with a 30 second response, followed by an open debate.  The debate concluded with 45 second closing statement.  For the  most part leaders were polite, withe the odd dig.  Overall there was no knock out punch that would give any leader a clear win.

This was good news for Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith, since Redford spend most of the night on the defensive, dealing with the "Do Nothing Committtee", physician intimidation, approving a controversial transmission line,  voting for a 30% pay raise for herself.

Smith put in a strong performance, deflecting criticism on conscience issues and citizen intiatives.  When pressed on social issues like abortion and same sex marriage, Smith said that her party would not legislate or have policies on contentious social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.

"It's nothing but fear-mongering by a government that's on the run," she said.

These issues have been settled decades ago and for any party to raise them is bogus.  Not only are those rights guaranteed in the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

There was little discussion on policy issues, although Health Care received some air time.  Brian Mason, NDP Leader accused both Conservative parties of wanting to privatize health care.  There was no discussion on the environment, the oilsands and specifically the construction of both the Northern Gateway and XL Keystone pipeline.

Raj Sherman at one point made a statement to Danielle Smith, which was odd.  "Danielle Alberta is not Alabama."  Thanks Raj, but we already knew,

Overall there was no clear winner of the debate, but Redford was unable to convince voters that she should continue as leader. In the end the debate probably helped Danielle Smith.  The knives should come out for the next ten days.

Alberta Election: Wildrose Leader Stance on Abortion-Gay Rights

Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith felt compelled to snuff out a controversy, which questioned her position on "Conscience Issues."   While recent polls indicate that the Wildrose Party may have lost some ground because of the controversy, overall the party still holds a healthy lead over the Progressive Conservatives, while Wildrose leader Danielle Smith's approval rating has slipped slightly.

On Wednesday Smith said when her party elected a leader it was clear to them that they elected a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage candidate.

 "When our members elected me they knew they were electing a candidate that was pro-choice and pro-gay marriage.  The only way we're going to be able to become a mainstream, big-tent conservative party capable of forming government is to focus on the issues that matter to Albertans. If I am elected premier, a Wildrose government will not be legislating in areas of morality."

While this issue was infused by a Calgary blogger, it was quickly taken up by Progressive Conservative leader Alison Redford.  It reminded this blogger of U.S. politics "deja vous," where Rick Santorum got sucked into social issues, such as abortion and contraception.  It effectively changed the focus of his campaign.

In Canada, the issue of gay rights has already been handled by the Supreme Court, including gay marriage and abortion.   Smith also affirmed that the promised citizen initiatives would have to stand the test of being constitutional and in accordance with Canada's Charter of Rights.

While this should put the matter to rest, Smith is doubtful that it will.  She believes that it was pushed by the Progressive Conservatives to divert the discussion from the real issues.

 "I think what you see normally when a conservative challenger comes up, you see this very commonly that these kinds of issues are brought up to fearmonger.  We saw it with Preston Manning, with Stockwell Day, we saw it with Stephen Harper so it actually doesn't surprise me that it has come up this election but it does disappoint me."

The Progressive Conservatives have recently framed the Wildrose Party as the party of old, white guys determined to resurrect regressive social policies.  The Progressive Conservative campaign manager, Susan Elliot, has suggested that the target of the citizen-initiatives would be women.

"Ethnic minorities are targets. Gays and lesbians are targets. We're the targets of those kinds of things."

Despite those suggestions, the Wildrose Party continues to lead in the polls.  A CTVHQ poll, published yesterday, finds that 43% of decided voters favour the Wildrose Party, followed by Progressive Conservatives at 29%, the NDP at 12% and Liberals at 11%.  

In the meantime, Progressive Conservative Leader, Alison Redford's approval rating has dropped from 59% to 46% last week.   Danielle Smith, who had an approval rating of 56% has slipped slightly to 54%, which could be within the margin of error. 

50% of Albetans believe that the Progressive Conservatives do not deserve re-election, while 23% say they should be re-elected.  27% are unsure.

Tonight at 6:30 pm the Alberta Leader's Debate will be broadcast throughout the province by a media consortium.  While debates in Alberta normally haven't received a lot of attention, this debate will be pivotal.   It may be the turning point for those still undecided.  The focus will undoubtedly be on the two women that lead the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative Party.    Smith will most certainly go after the PCs wreckless spending.  If the debate remains stays on the issues that matter, it could be an interesting exchange.

Party Platforms

Alberta Election: Are Conscience Issues Bogus?

With the Alberta election less than two weeks away, the initial momentum enjoyed by the Wildrose party seems to be shifting, with latest polls indicating a neck on neck race.  While the Wildrose Party campaigned primarily on fiscal issues, the question of conscience entered the race after a question raised by  a Calgary blogger, Jane Cawthorne, on each parties position on abortion.  The Wildrose response:

“The legalities of abortion fall under federal jurisdiction. We respect that Albertans view social issues differently, which is why Wildrose would immediately introduce legislation allowing citizens to put issues like abortion to a citizen-initiated referendum.”

Although there was an immediate clarification by Danielle Smith on the issue, the question and responses appear to have raised doubt in the minds of the electorate. 

 “Citizen initiative is and has always been an important part of the Wildrose platform.  However, any initiative must first be vetted by a federally-appointed judge to determine whether or not it is constitutional.”

Alison Reford is using the Wildrose conscience policy as a wedge issue and it appears to be working.


“I was absolutely amazed we were having this conversation in Alberta because I believe that all Albertans want to live in a place where we respect each other, where we feel safe,”

Is the issue of conscience right bogus?  You bet it is.  First of all the rights of marriage commissioners and doctors is already enshrined.  Abortions, which are mostly performed in larger centres like Edmonton and Calgary, have doctors that don't object to these procedures.  Marriage Commissioners are not in the employ of the Alberta government and get paid by the clients who hire them to perform their marriages.

" For practical purposes, the issue doesn’t actually mean much. Health care providers already have conscience clauses codified in their own standards of practice. Both the Alberta College of Pharmacists, and the College of Physicians and Services allow practitioners to opt-out of procedures or services that they find personally problematic. However, health care workers must then refer patients to other facilities."  National Post

Despite the fact that marriage commissioners can already opt out of performing marriage for same sex couples, there have been no complaints in the Province from couples about commissioners who are unwilling to marry them. 

The issue, IMHO, has been fabricated, strays from the real issues of property rights, civil liberties, fiscal irresponsibility and general arrogance of Tories, who seem to think they have an entitlement to govern.  Instead of discussing the overspending culture of Progressive Conservatives, it appears that fear mongering is right out the playbook of Liberals in Central Canada and Obama Administration in the U.S. 

Perhaps Albertans should be afraid of Alison Redford, who is a big "Progressive" and very little "conservative."  Let's just remember that both the Liberal Party and New Democratic Parties of Alberta are not a home for someone with political ambition in Alberta.  The Progressive Conservative Party has become the home of ambitious Liberals.  

The past two weeks have been full of promises and more spending, despite the rush to passing a budget prior to the election.  Voters should take a look at the various party platforms and make up their minds.  Don't let bogus issues determine how you vote.  

Check out the Party Platforms

Thursday, April 12th, will be the Leader's Debate, broadcast from 6:30 pm to 8 pm.  Get engaged and watch it.  After the debate there are eleven more days to pose direct questions to the leaders.  First and foremost get out and vote. 

Alberta Election: Race is Tightening - Leger Poll

A Leger Marketing poll conducted Easter weekend suggests that the race between the Wildrose Party and the Progressive Conservative party is tightening.  The poll commissioned by the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald suggests that  60% of Albertans are satisfied with Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives.  The poll finds that if an election were held today, Albertans would vote 37% Conservative, 34% Wildrose, 12% Liberal, 11% New Democrats and 2% for the Alberta Party.

The results can be seen as a statistical tie.  The governing Tories hold a formidable lead in Edmonton, while there is an intense battle in Calgary.  While the Progressive Conservatives lost considerable ground prior to the Easter weekend, based on physician intimidation, the "Do Nothing Committee," which collected $1000 a month for 39 months, it appears that the raising of social conscience issues has helped the Conservatives.

A recent blogger survey on abortion received a contentious answer from the Wildrose Party Chief of Staff.  The statement read:

“The legalities of abortion fall under federal jurisdiction. We respect that Albertans view social issues differently, which is why Wildrose would immediately introduce legislation allowing citizens to put issues like abortion to a citizen-initiated referendum.”

Wildrose Party leader, Danielle Smith later clarified the the statement:

 “Citizen initiative is and has always been an important part of the Wildrose platform.  However, any initiative must first be vetted by a federally-appointed judge to determine whether or not it is constitutional.”

Despite the neck to neck race, the Tories have dropped significantly since polls conducted just two months ago, when the Tories were at 53% and the Wildrose was at 16%.

The telephone poll surveyed 1215 voters over four days during the Easter weekend. 

It would appear that much is at stake during the Leadership Debate on April 12th.  The debate will be broadcast throughout Alberta from 6:30 to 8:00pm. 

Alberta Election - Wildrose Announces Accountabilty Act and MLA Pay

The Alberta election campaign moves into its third week, with leaders unveiling more of their platforms.  Danielle Smith unveiled the Accountability Act and addressed salaries for Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs).   She opined that a $125,000 salary for MLAs, without extra bonuses for serving on committees was ample, since serving in the legislature is a public service.

The Wildrose Accountability Act addresses several issues, including  Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy (FOIP) laws, introducing new referendum rules, and the high-profile issue of MLA pay.

"I understand there is some debate about whether you pay more to get higher quality applicants, or whether you acknowledge that it is a public service, and it is a sacrifice, and you get people in there for the right reason."

MLAs recently passed a 33% pay raise, which was met by outcries from the public.  Smith's announcement addresses this issue.

 Raj Sherman, Liberal Leader is in agreement with Danielle Smith on the MLA pay issue, with his own plan to roll back MLA pay and put a cap on committee pay.

"I've found public service to be a labour of love, it shouldn't be the best paid job you've ever had."

He also pledged that a Liberal government would change the relationship with communities, since communities should not be treated as wards of the province.  He would establish  "Big City Charters for Edmonton and Calgary" and save $1.5 billion of surplus resource revenue into a municipality heritage fund every year.

Maybe that plan would get some of our country roads into a safe condition.   Of course this is all dependent on resource revenue remaining relatively high.  With health care being the top priority in Alberta and 40% of the budget already allocated to it, major changes will be needed to reduce emergency room waiting list and suitable elderly care.   Maybe giving a percentage would have been wiser than putting a dollar amount to it.  A dollar amount includes too many assumptions.

Alison Redford was touring rural Alberta today and promised to spend more money on agricultural research, offer bursaries for rural students and  refund tuition to doctors who agree to practice in rural communities.

"Our agricultural industry as it is, is more important than ever," she said. "But what comes next is just as exciting and we need policies that will continue to make communities vibrant and prosperous."

 “My government will ensure that good jobs, health and education services that support a desirable and successful lifestyle are available in rural areas."

 Redford said that her package would come to $47 Million in 2013-14, with some covered in current ministry budgets.  The plan is intended to  boost agricultural society funding by $2-million per year and spend $3-million on high-speed Internet infrastructure.

This is another commitment that would obviously require further clarification.  While the doctor tuition refund  is desireable, with Alberta hiring so many foreign doctors to fill the void, again no dollar value or goal for the number of doctors was given. 

Since high speed internet is still wanting in Alberta, this also requires clarification on how $3 Million will expand it.  Satellite internet is too restrictive, both in download quotas, with its fair use policy (250 MB for Xplornet) and its speed.  Cable is obviously out of the question, due to cost.  This leaves wireless internet and more towers or repeaters.

As the party leaders lead up to the debate on April 12th, there are a number of questions that need to be answered.  Redford passed a budget just prior to calling the election, it would be prudent for all leaders to be prepared to show a dollar amount for their promises and how they hope to pay for it.

Alison Redford's budget has been passed by the majority progressive conservative government, how much more will her additional promises cost?



Brian Mason's New Democrats will be making a health care announcement later today.

Stay Tuned.