Election 2012: Are Polls of any Value?

When you look at polls  that seem to be making pollsters rich, one has to question if there is any significance to them. Polls, of course are a snapshot of the particular people polled at the time and rely heavily on people actually revealing their true feelings. The results boil down to a particular question being asked.
How polls can be deceiving is demonstrated by polls taken during a recent Alberta Provincial election, held on April 23rd.  On Sunday, an up to date national poll was released that saw the governing party losing by a large margin.  Progressive Conservatives had been in power in Alberta for 41years.  The party was challenged by the new Wildrose Party, which had one seat in the legislature prior to the election.
The Sunday poll suggest that the Wildrose Party with 41%  over Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives with 32%, while the NDP has 13% and the Liberals at 10%.  The NDP and Liberals are strongest in Edmonton, where they are at 23% and 14% respectively.

The Forum Project Inc poll was conducted with a total of 2010 responses gathered Saturday evening by automated phone response.  Full Story @allvoices.com

Canadian Politics This Week

This week has been full of events in Canadian politics and Parliament has taken another turn when it comes to good behaviour.   Highlights this week were the election in Alberta, the student protests in Quebec and the raising of the "abortion" issue in a private members bill in the House of Commons.  There was also the apparent request by the U.S. for Australia and Canada to leave a small number of troops in Afghanistan post 2014.  A new poll suggests that the Conservative Party is in a statistical tie with the Official Opposition "New Democratic Party."

Alberta led the growth in the Canadian economy, which expanded 2.6% in 2011, well behind the 3.4% expansion in 2010.  Alberta and Saskatchewan were well ahead of the remainder of Canada with an expansion of 5.2% and 4.8% respectively.  In contrast Ontario and Quebec expanded 2.0% and 1.7%.  The economies in P.E.I, N.B. and N.S. are all but at a standstill ranging from 1.1 to .01%, while Newfoundland is above the national average at 2.9%.  Manitoba at 1.1% growth is the only Western Province below the national average.  The Yukon and Nunavut far exceeded the national average, while the economy of the North West Territories contracted by 5.5%.

Turning to the Alberta elections, Monday nights results were a major misreading of the polling organizations.  Pollsters had predicted a Wildrose sweep, yet when it was all said and done, Alison Redford's Progressive Conservative Party had an overwhelming majority, capturing 61 of 87 seats in the Alberta Legislature.  The big loser is the Alberta Liberal Party, which went from 26% of the popular vote in 2008 to just 10% in Monday's election.  While the Wildrose Party did not meet the expectations of the polls, it nonetheless gained 16 seats over 2008 and now forms the official opposition.  Many analysts believe that the election turned into Redford's favour during the last three days of the campaign.  The politics of fear worked and many Liberals joined the Redford camp, especially the unions and teachers. 

Alison Redford has a job on her hands to keep her promises, improve the ailing health care system and stamp out corruption and intimidation in her party.  The Wildrose Party will, no doubt, hold her and the Progressive Conservatives to account.  It should make for an interesting four years in the Alberta Legislature.

In Ontario, the Liberal government is one seat short of a majority and after the Progressive Conservative leader rejected the proposed the budget outright, Premier Dalton McGuinty made concessions to the New Democrats to pass his budget, another deficit budget, which resulted in Ontario's credit rating being downgraded. 

The fortunes seem to be turning in the favour of the Ontario Liberals though, since Tory MPP Elizabeth Witmer resigned on Friday, triggering a byelection.  Witmer is the MPP for Kitchener-Waterloo.  In last October's vote, Witmer had 21,356 votes while Liberal candidate Eric Davis finished second with 17,837 votes.  That riding is now up for grabs in a byelection that must be called within six months. 

Then there was the issued of student protests and violence in Montreal over tuition fees.  Even with the newly proposed increases by the Charest government, Quebec students pay the lowest tuition fees anywhere in Canada.  In Alberta for full time tuition the cost is double compared to Quebec students.  If Quebec students ever had the sympathy of the public, it is unlikely that anyone is on their side after the violence and destruction caused by their protests.  Every day they strike costs the taxpayer additional fund to pay for police forces.  Go figure.

On the national scene a private members motion once again ignited the fire between pro-life and pro-choice forces.  The motion called for a committee to be formed to examine when life starts.  While the bill will go nowhere, it again raised doubts as to the Prime Minister's secret agenda.  The Prime Minister already indicated he would vote against the motion.  In likelihood most of his caucus will as well.  The Liberals will allow a free vote on the issue, while the NDP has instructed its MPs to vote against the motion.  One has to shake his head and wonder why this issue has to be raised yet again.  These issues have been settled decades ago.

As it became know this week that there may be a request by the U.S. for Canada to leave some troops in Afghanistan past 2014, the debate was once again ignited.  The NDP is absolutely against any troops remaining in Afghanistan, while the government indicated they would consider it.

"As we approach that date, we will examine all options and we will take the decision that is in the best interest of this country and in the best interest of our security objectives for the globe," PM Harper said. 

When Mulcair asked the prime minister about the extension, Harper attacked the NDP for being pacifists regardless of the situation. "In 1939, the NDP leader didn’t even want to support the fight against Hitler," said Harper. Of course the PM was referring to the CCF, the predecessor of the NDP.  This created a lot of chatter in the twitter sphere, with Canadians offering history lessons to the PM. 

All in all it has been a busy week in Canada, with the election campaign heating up in British Columbia, the Question Period comedy hour, student violence and demonstrations in Quebec and the Alberta election.  

51% of Albertans say Progressive Conservatives Don't Deserve Re-election

The Wildrose Party has had a rough ride for the past few days and it has lost the party some support in the polls.  A THQ Poll conducted on 17 and 18 April shows that the Wildrose Party 2% support overall in Alberta, while the Progressive Conservatives gained 4%.  The poll, which claims to be accurate +  or - 2.8% polled 1425 people.

When respondents were asked if the Progressive Conservatives deserved to be re-elected, 51% of respondents said no, 28% said yes, while 21% were not sure.

With only a few day left and advance voting already in progress, the race will likely be tight, however it is unlikely that any party will get a clear majority.

Source: THQ Poll conducted 17 and 18 April.

                                      Province   Edmonton  Calgary    Rural

Wildrose                              41%          27%           44%       48%

Progressive Conservative   33%          32%            36%       31%  

NDP                                      11%         18%              5%       12%

Liberal                                  11%         19%            11%         5%

Alberta Party                          3%            3%              3%         3%

51% of Albertans don't think the Progressive Conservatives deserve to be re-elected, with 28% saying they do.  21% are unsure           

Alberta Campaign Trail - Rhetoric and Accusations Heat Up

 With Just a few days left until Albertans go to the poll, it appears that the forerunner in the polls has come under attack for social issues and allegations that they are hiding to protect their lead.  Election campaigns are hectic and often there are scheduling conflicts.  The attack on social issues, quite frankly is a side show.  These are issues that have been settled years ago and are well protected in the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. 

Below are the results of a poll conducted by Inside Forum and a seat projections if an election were held on that day.  Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party still holds a seven point lead over Alison Redford's Tories and the seat projection indicates that the Wildrose Party could gain a possible majority.  You can expect even more knives to come out in the next few days.  Beware of election promises that aren't funded. 

Date                       ABP     LIB     NDP     PC     WR     OTH    Insight Forum Poll
2012/04/16               2         10        12        33       40         2        

Date                       ABP     LIB     NDP     PC     WR     OTH    Seat Projection
2012/04/16     -                     1          5        32       49   

Danielle Smith was accused of dodging an interview with Global TV, when she said she couldn't appear for a live interview this morning.  To deconflict the scheduling problem,  she did a taped interview last night, which was aired by both Global Edmonton and Global Calgary.

Smith explained that she has been arranging pre-taped interview lately because of travel conflicts.  She noted that she needed at least five hours of sleep.  With the hectic of the campaign during the last week this is understandable.  Canadidates, and particularly leaders, are trying to meet as many people as possible.

During the interview at Global Calgary, Smith was asked about candidates that have come under fire for recent controversial remarks.

“I guess I don’t expect politicians to be perfect, and I don’t think Albertans expect politicians to be perfect.  It may well be that we have candidates who could take a little bit more media training and be able to express themselves better.  Part of what we’re bringing to politics, is that we’re not bringing career politicians. We’re bringing together regular men and women who want to get into public office for the right reason, they want to do a public service.  From time to time they’re going to make mistakes, and I’m prepared to forgive some of those mistakes and I think the public is too.” 

This is the line Danielle Smith has taken all along.  Voters will make the decisions on the individual candidates.  It is time for the candidates to get back to the issues and quit the side shows.  Each party has controversial candidates.

 

Alberta Election - A Wildrose Majority is Possible

A poll conducted by Return on Insight, which surveyed 800 Albertans on the 13th and 14th April, shows if an election were held today, the Wildrose Party could form a majority government with 48 of 87 seats in the legislature.   The first column shows the result of the poll, while the second set of numbers shows a possible seat projection. 

 
Date             ABP     EGRN     LIB     NDP     PC     WR     OTH  
2012/04/14     1            -            11         9        36       43     -              Poll


Date            ABP     LIB     NDP     PC     WR     OTH
2012/04/14                1         4         34       48                                     Seat Projection


The Wildrose Party leads with 43 per cent followed by the PCs at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 11 per cent, the NDP at nine per cent and the Alberta Party at one per cent. The poll suggests that the real battleground will be in the cities.   In Calgary, the Tories have a slim four-point lead over Wildrose at 45 per cent support to 41 per cent.  In Edmonton, it's the Wildrose Party with a slight lead of 37 per cent to 31 per cent.

Results of the  poll are accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Jobs/Economy Number One Priority for Canadians

Canada overall, compared to its G8 partners, has fared well during the recent recession.  Although some stimulus money was spend on bailing out the auto industry, Canada's banks needed no help.  The Conservative government is also on track to curtail spending and reducing its deficit.   Regardless, Canada can't function in isolation.  The United States is its number on trading partner and the Obama Administration and Congress have not been able to reduce spending and the debt clock keeps clicking having reach $15 Trillion this month.  With the seemingly unmanageable financial crisis in Europe, Canadians are well aware how volatile the economy is, especially the influence of outside sources.  Jobs and the Economy have overtaken Health Care as the number on issue for Canadians, according to a CTV/Nanos poll. 

Canada held an election in May and for the first time, since first elected in 2005, the Conservative government won a majority.  The New Democratic Party (NDP) overtook the Liberals as the official opposition.  For the first time in Canadian history the Liberal Party has been relegated to third party.  The majority of gains for the NDP came from the Province of Quebec, who rejected the BLOC Quebecois in favor of the NDP. 

The latest Nanos poll seems to indicate that the Liberals have gained ground on the NDP and are now in a statistical tie with the New Democrats.  It should be noted that the NDP is concentrating on a leadership campaign, in a quest to replace Jack Layton, who passed away due to cancer earlier this year.

The poll conducted as a telephone survey of 1202 Canadians between the 16th and 21st of November, concluded that   35.6% of Canadians supported the Conservative Party, while 28.1% supported the Liberals, 27.3%  the NDP and 3.9% the Greens (support for the Bloc Québécois rose marginally to 3.9% nationally and 15.9% in Quebec). 

Stephen Harper retains a clear advantage overall in the Nanos Leadership Index (102.4), while interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae is firmly in second ahead of interim NDP Leader Nycole Turmel, with respective Leadership Index scores of 43.9 and 24.9.

As a national issue of concern, jobs/the economy has surpassed healthcare (jobs/economy 29.3%, healthcare 22.8%).  Nanos Poll

Below is the the Methodology for the poll and additional results:

Methodology Between November 16th and 21st, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,202 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 1,202 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For 938 committed voters, it is accurate plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Results for October 24th, 2011 are from a random telephone survey of 1,202 Canadians conducted between October 20th and 24th, 2011. A random telephone survey of 1,202 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For additional data on specific questions you can visit Nanos Research Website.