Election 2012: Are Polls of any Value?

When you look at polls  that seem to be making pollsters rich, one has to question if there is any significance to them. Polls, of course are a snapshot of the particular people polled at the time and rely heavily on people actually revealing their true feelings. The results boil down to a particular question being asked.
How polls can be deceiving is demonstrated by polls taken during a recent Alberta Provincial election, held on April 23rd.  On Sunday, an up to date national poll was released that saw the governing party losing by a large margin.  Progressive Conservatives had been in power in Alberta for 41years.  The party was challenged by the new Wildrose Party, which had one seat in the legislature prior to the election.
The Sunday poll suggest that the Wildrose Party with 41%  over Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives with 32%, while the NDP has 13% and the Liberals at 10%.  The NDP and Liberals are strongest in Edmonton, where they are at 23% and 14% respectively.

The Forum Project Inc poll was conducted with a total of 2010 responses gathered Saturday evening by automated phone response.  Full Story @allvoices.com

Obama Campaign: A Bottomless pit of Morals

Nothing seems to be too low when it comes to discrediting presidential hopeful Mitt Romney.  Over the past few months we have seen reiterations of Romney's time at Bain Capital and the claim that he hasn't paid taxes for ten years.  To add insult to injury, Obama's Super Pac, Priorites USA is now claiming that Mitt Romney is responsible for the death of a woman after Bain Capital closed a factory. 

The Obama campaign seems confident that Florida Senator Marc Rubio will be Romney's choice as Vice President.   The director of Obama for America in Florida, Ashley Walker,  send out an e-mail soliciting dirt on the Senator.

“Share what you think the rest of the country should know about what Rubio’s really done in Florida, the good, bad and ugly.  And why he’d be a disaster as our next vice president,” the e-mail said. Full Story @allvoices.com

Integrity of Elections in Canada and the United States

The Canadian Situation on Voter Fraud
Election fraud has become a major issue in Canada. There have been allegations of the Conservative government affecting vote results by using robocalls (automated calls) to send voters to a different polling station. The issue is presently under investigation by Elections Canada.
"OTTAWA — The IP address used to send misleading robocalls to Guelph voters on election day was the same address used by a worker from the campaign office of local Conservative candidate Marty Burke, Elections Canada investigators believe.
The Internet Protocol address — like an Internet phone number — was used by campaign worker Andrew Prescott to arrange legitimate calls through RackNine, the Edmonton voice broadcasting firm.  Full Story@allvoices.com

Mitt Romney's Address in Jerusalem Full Text

The Republican candidate Mitt Romney gave an address in Jerusalem, which vowed that America would respect any decsision made by Israel, should talks with Teheran fail. He emphasized that Israel has the right to defend itself against an Iran that possesses nuclear weapons and that it is right for the United States to stand at Israel's side. Israels' right to a pre-emptive strike would be respected, he underlined.
"When Iran’s leaders deny the Holocaust or speak of wiping this nation off the map, only the naïve – or worse – will dismiss it as an excess of rhetoric. Make no mistake: the ayatollahs in Tehran are testing our moral defenses. They want to know who will object, and who will look the other way.
My message to the people of Israel and the leaders of Iran is one and the same: I will not look away; and neither will my country. As Prime Minister Begin put it, in vivid and haunting words, “if an enemy of [the Jewish] people says he seeks to destroy us, believe him.”  Full story @allvoices.com

NATO Summit - Afghanistan - Rush to the Exit

When President Obama took office, almost three and a half years ago, he said that Afghanistan was the justified war, while he said he would end the war in Iraq.  One can argue about how the war in Iraq was ended and whether or not it created more security problems in the region, but as far as Afghanistan is concerned, there now appears to be a rush to the exit.  There seems to be no regard for the conditions on the ground.

France will have its troops out of Afghanistan by the end of this year.  Australia has already announced that it will leave a year early and the Canadian government has indicated that it has done more than its fair share and will not extend its training mission beyond 2014.

President Obama said yesterday that the war in Afghanistan is over as we know it.  Really?  1965 US soldiers have paid the ultimate price as of last Friday Read More, including just six last week.

NATO issued a declaration on Afghanistan overnight.

 "We are gradually and responsibly drawing down our forces to complete the ISAF mission by 31 December 2014. By the end of 2014, when the Afghan Authorities will have full security responsibility, the NATO-led combat mission will end."

The United Kingdom had 414 of its soldiers killed in action, Canada 158, France 82, Germany 53, Italy 46, Denmark 42, Poland 35, Spain 34 and Australia 32, just to name a few.  Overall 3006 NATO soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan.  Add to that those wounded and psychologically damaged, one must ask the question if the cost was worth it.

The Taliban is hardly defeated, despite the positive spin that the President is trying to put on the war.  The Karzai government is corrupt and yet it is the best partner NATO has in the devastated region.  It is anticipated that $4.2 Billion is required to fund Afghanistan's military post the NATO withdrawal, of which the US is expected to pay about half.

Let's be clear, the decisions being taken in regards to the NATO mission have nothing to do with the conditions on the ground but are merely being taken for political expediency.  It is no accident that those decisions are being announced during the President's re-election campaign.  They are all part of a check list for improving re-election efforts.

While the public is tired of war, more respect should be shown for the price that soldiers and their families have paid.  While most of them are volunteers, none of them asked to go to Afghanistan.  It is  not the soldier that starts wars. It is the politician.  Now the politician is turning his/her very back  on those they tasked to fight their war.  

At the very least politicians could be honest with the public and show respect for the soldiers, many way too young to realize what they are getting themselves into.

This travesty is amplified upon the soldiers return. The soldier has to fight for proper care and in most instances is unable to find employment.  Not only is the politician to blame, but also the media that has not done enough to highlight the plight of veterans. Does this look like Vietnam all over again?

DOD US Military Casualties in Afghanistan as of 11 May 2012

As the American election campaign takes up steam, another ten US soldiers paid the ultimate price in Afghanistan during the past week. Nine died of combat related deaths, while one death was of other causes.  72 soldiers were wounded.   This brings the total number of deaths this year to 125 with  680 wounded soldiers.

While the U.S. media concentrated on the campaign, President Obama went on fundraisers, one of them at George Clooney's residence in California that raised $15 Million for the President, Afghanistan continues to be a volatile place.  

Meanwhile Greece is still struggling with forming a government, France has a new President, which has promised growth rather than austerity measures.   The UK had a 24 hour public sector strike, protesting David Cameron's austerity measures, which involve raising the pension age and asking that public sector employees to contribute more to their pensions.

The U.S. is approaching a $16 Trillion deficit, the economy is sluggish at best and millions of Americans remain unemployed.  The election campaign has turned to name calling, digging up dirt on irrelevant events that happened in the 60s. 

This week President Obama announced that he was in favour of gay marriage, a position he has flip flopped on several  times, dating back to at least 1996. 

Obama's Evolution:

1996 - To the Chicago LBGT newspaper - "I favor legalizing same-sex marriages, and would fight efforts to prohibit such marriages.”

2004 - "I don't think Marriage is a Civil Right" - See Video

2008 - At Saddleback Church  he said hat he believed marriage is a union of one man and one woman.

2012 - He says in an interview with ABC that he personally supports gay marriage, but would leave it to states to decide.    

“At a certain point I’ve just concluded that for me personally it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same sex couples should be able to get married,” Obama said in an interview with ABC’s Robin Roberts.

The announcement came on the heels of North Carolina's electorate voting  with 60%  against gay marriage.

Vladimir Putin is once again the Captain of the ship in Russia and has scuttled his invitation to attend the G8 Summit in Camp David, stating that he had to work on selecting his Cabinet.  There is widespread belief though, that Putin is skipping the summit to protest NATO's intention to instal the missile defence stystem.   Russia's Foreign Minister has said that the Russia would station rockets close to the Polish border and if necessary destroy the infrastructure of the missile defense system.

There are less than six months before the U.S. election.   Many issues need to be resolved, including the future of Europe, Afghanistan and the U.S. and global economy.  Iran, North Korea, Syria and the Palestinian/Israel issues are still very much unsolved.  Meanwhile the pettiness in the U.S. election campaign continues, without the most important global and domestic issues being addressed.  Instead social issues seem to be front and centre, issues that should have or have been resolved decades ago.  Instead both sides try to get votes with soundbytes. 

While soldiers continue to die and are burdened with disabilities, neither side is engaging in a serious debate about the future of America.  It's time to let the rubber hit the road, get into the serious issues, present a vision for the future of America and the world.   Take a moment this week to think about the men and women who are still fighting a nasty battle in Afghanistan.  They deserve our support, Lest We Forget.

Roll of Casualties

Below are this week’s updated DoD casualty figures:

Op Enduring Freedom                  Total Deaths       KIA   Non Hostile              WIA

Afghanistan Only                                   1845               1529        316                     15858
Other Locations                                        111                   12          99
DoD Civ Casualties                                      3                     1            2
Worldwide Total                                     1959                1542        417                    15858

Accumulated 2012 Casualties:

KIA            Non Combat Deaths             WIA

  77                            48                               680

Mitt Romney - A Better America Starts Tonight

Mitt Romney made a clean sweep of the Republican primaries in New York, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Rhode Island.  His sweep should erase any doubt that he will be the Republican nominee to face President Obama.  In his most compelling speech to date, he talked directly to the American people and promised "A better America starts tonight."

“To all of the thousands of good and decent Americans I’ve met who want nothing more than a better chance, a fighting chance, to all of you I have a simple message.  Hold on a little longer. A better America begins tonight.  Because he has failed, he will run a campaign of diversions and distractions and distortions. That kind of campaign may have worked at another place and in a different time — but not here and not now.  It’s still about the economy, and we’re not stupid.”

"Everywhere I go, Americans are tired of being tired, and many of those who are fortunate enough to have a job are working harder for less," he said.

President Obama and the Democratic Party have run a very divisive campaign, pitching the rich against the poor, creating a war on women, particularly during Rick Santorum's campaign and promising lower college tuition to college students.  His "We Can't Wait" campaign tried to influence the American public to pressure Congress.  What seems never to be mentioned in an Obama campaign message is that  the President had total control of Congress for the first two years of his presidency.  One has to ask when all these issues became important.  Even some dissenting Democrats profess that Obama lacked leadership during his first two years, letting Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi direct the writing of the "Affordable Health Care Act."  Obama now seems to want to fix all those priorities of his 2008 campaign in the last four months in office.  

Unemployment is still above 8%, despite the stimulus, prices at the pumps are out of control.  Tons of money have been wasted in investments to failing green energy companies and the Keystone XL pipeline has been rejected for political reasons to satisfy Obama's green base.  The number of people on food stamps has increased significantly under the President's watch.  Americans are tired of hearing that it is all George W. Bush's fault. 

The Obama campaign challenged Romney's speech with the same old song about Republicans:

“The title for Governor Romney’s speech tonight should have been ‘Back to the Future,’ because he has proposed a return to the same policies that got us into the economic crisis in the first place.  The spokesman argued that the a choice between two candidates, two records, and two visions for the country, he argued Romney “would stack the deck against the middle class, pull the rug out from under growing sectors of our economy like manufacturing and clean energy and promote giveaways to Americans who can afford to lobby for them.”

 

This is the same politics of division rather than defending Obama's record, whose policies have done little to change the economic situation. 

 

The 2012 general election will be a close race and it is Romney's if he can keep his message positive and focused on the economy.  The side issues have done little to help the GOP effort and Romney rightly focused it on the Obama's record and the economy.  Yes it certainly is still the economy and we're not stupid. 

Income Tax Returns, The Buffett Rule - How will the Campaign 2012 Be Shaped

With Mitt Romney all but confirmed as the Republican nominee to face President Obama, the ballot question seems to be shaped by the Obama campaign.  On the one side you have the President discussing income equality and every one paying their fair share, while Mitt Romney believes a rebound of the economy will be sparked by lower taxes.   The good thing about these opposing views is that it may spark a debate that is long overdue.  NOT.

This week has been an example of he nastiness that we can expect from the campaigns, particular the Super PACs.  Obama's campaign team, headquartered in Chicago, has 200 operatives and Mitt Romney has a formidable organization as well.   The so-called Republican War on women, orchestrated by the contraception and abortion issue, particularly during the Santorum campaign, used Sandra Fluke as the showcase for the plight of students and women who suffer due to the purchase of birth control pills.  That campaign was a loser for Republicans, which moved the women vote into the Obama side of the ledger. 

This week, however, Hilary Rosen, with connections to the White House, made inflammatory remarks, which essentially said that Ann Romney had no credibility on economy, since had never worked a day in her life.  Not only was that a swipe at Ann Romney, who raised five boys as a stay at home mom, struggles with MS and is a breast cancer survivor, but it was a swipe at all other women, who chose to stay at home an raise their children.  The remarks were met by an outcry by all sides, including President Obama and the First Lady.  The White House and the DNC went into full damage control mode.  A FOX News and Rasmussen poll indicate that the remarks hurt the Obama campaign, with support of women for both candidates now in a statistical tie, a segment of the population that gave overwhelming support to the President prior to the remarks.

During the course of the GOP Primary, Mitt Romney released his 2010 income tax return and gave an estimate of the 2011 return, which he said would be made public once completed.  President Obama and the Vice President released their 2011 income tax returns yesterday, challenging Mitt Romney to make ten years of income tax returns public.  Prior to releasing his income tax returns, Obama had once again called for the rich to pay their fair share.  Surrounded by millionaires, Obama once again called for the Buffett rule, which would effectively double the capital gains tax for approximately 4,000 millionaires.  In the overall scheme of things this is a drop in the bucket and would do nothing to reduce the deficit, let alone the debt, which is expected to reach $16 Trillion by the end of 2012.

President Obama's tax information points out a couple of hypocrisies, first the President who has often touted that millionaires and he himself should pay a little more, does not qualify for the "Buffet Rule" and he has also used the tax code, legally, to his advantage by donating $48,000, a tax deduction, to his daughters.  It raises the question, ethically, if the President practices what he preaches.

"President Obama and his wife, Michele, gave a total of $48,000 in tax-free gifts to their daughters, according to tax records made public on Friday.
The president and his wife separately gave each daughter a $12,000 gift under a section of the federal tax code that exempts such donations from federal taxes.
There is nothing illegal about the president’s taking advantage of this tax shelter, but it does raise eyebrows given that he has lamented the myriad tax exemptions used by the wealthy—“millionaires and billionaires” like himself—to pay less in taxes. He has yet to propose a comprehensive plan to reform the byzantine tax code.
The Obama’s tax return indicates that the gifts, likely for their daughter’s college educations, began in 2007, when the maximum exemptible amount was $24,000 per couple. The maximum exemption has since increased to $26,000 per couple."  Freebeacon.com

With an economy on shaky ground, unemployment rates still above 8% and pump prices hitting the roof, the "War on Women", the Buffett Rule and personal income tax returns are nothing but diversions, detracting from the real issues that every day Americans deal with.  There are also a myriad of trouble spots around the world, which require close attention, least of all Iran, North Korea, Syria and the ongoing decade old war in Afghanistan.  The public can only hope that the election debate addresses those issues and ceases the gimmickry of side issues. 

Frankly it is the tax code that requires a restructure, not information on what a candidate has earned or claimed legally.   The plea to both campaigns is to address what ails America and stop the gimmickry.  Give the voters some credit for common sense, we can see through the gimmicks. 

DoD U.S. Military Casualties In Afghanistan as of 6 Apr 2012

Another nine Americans paid the ultimate price this week.  Seven were killed in action, while three others died of other causes and 45 were wounded.  While the main stream media is concentrated on the 2012 election campaign, Afghanistan after some attention after the Qoran burnings and the killing of 17 civilians by SSG Bales, Afghanistan has once again dropped off the radar.

Yesterday was also the 20th Anniversary of the Siege of Sarajevo, which got little attention by the US media, even though 11,500 people lost their lives.  The media kept busy with the perceived "War on Women" by the Republican party, Obama's comments about the unelected Supreme Court, with an interlude of the fighter crash at Virginia Beach into an apartment complex.  While the total number of casualties is not known, it appears that only seven people were injured and three families, who may be on vacation have not been accounted for, a miracle, in view of what could have been.

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This week, Mitt Romney picked up another 86 delegates after his primary wins in Wisconsin, Maryland and the District of Columbia.  Although Romney now has more than half of the 1144 delegates required, there is no sign of either Newt Gingrich or his main contender Rick Santorum withdrawing from the race.  Mitt Romney is now concentrating his efforts on President Obama, while he will still have to spend funds to ensure further victories over Santorum.  He has managed to close the gap in Pennsylvania, Santorum's home state.  A loss by Santorum would be a devastating blow.

President Obama has also concentrated his efforts on the presumptive nominee.  Needless to say this is what the main stream media is concentrating on. 
Regardless of the election campaign, there is still a war going on in Afghanistan.  Soldiers and civilians are still dying and even though it is not reported in the main stream media, men and women are still facing acts of violence on a daily basis. 
List of Casualties i.casualties.org

Below are this week’s updated DoD casualty figures:
Op Enduring Freedom                  Total Deaths       KIA   Non Hostile              WIA
Afghanistan Only                                   1805               1499         306                  15560
Other Locations                                        111                  13            98
DoD Civ Casualties                                      3                    1             2
Worldwide Total                                     1919                1513        406                   15560
Accumulated 2012 Casualties:
KIA            Non Combat Deaths             WIA
45                          37                                  382

American Election Campaign - My Nickel

As Mitt Romney appears to be the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, it looks as if he will be the candidate opposing the incumbent President.   The voters will be presented with a choice of a successful Governor and businessman, Mitt Romney and a former professor and community organizer, the incumbent President Barack Obama. 

As of late it would appear that being successful is almost like a disease.  Democrats and Romney’s GOP opponents have been quick to demonize Romney’s success.  It makes one wonder whatever happened to the American dream. 

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Besides being successful in business, Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, showed his pragmatism governing a state with a largely Democratic dominated Legislature, in a largely Liberal state.  He also turned around the Salt Lake City Olympics, making it a successful winter Olympics.  Personally, his wealth should not enter the picture.  He is also the only candidate who is not a Washington insider.  He may just be the man needed to shake up Washington.

On the other side you have Barrack Obama, the incumbent President, a man that campaigned on “Hope and Change” in 2008.  He promised to rid Washington of business as usual.  Four years later there is more gridlock in Washington than there was under George Bush.   Obama, who delivers a great speech, hasn’t delivered politically.  In my humble opinion, the President has done more to divide the country than any President in recent history.  He continues to apply his community co-ordinator techniques,   which do nothing to unify the country.  During his watch the debt has increased by $5 Trillion to almost $16 Trillion.  In the recent past he has attacked the Supreme Court of the United States, because of his fears that his landmark “Affordable Health Act” may be ruled unconstitutional. 

His techniques have resemblance to fear mongering, criticizing Congressman Paul Ryan’s budget as giving to the rich on the backs of seniors and the poor.  For the month of March an expected jobs number of 210,000 only turned out to be 120,000, leaving an unemployment rate of 8.2%.  25% of youth, Obama’s 2008 base is unemployed.  The unemployment rate has dropped from 8.3% to 8.2%.  In contrast jobs created in the Canada were much better. 

While President Obama continues with his classic attacks, invoking class warfare, Mitt Romney and the Republicans have presented solutions, which Democratic Majority Leader, Harry Reid in the Senate won’t even bring to the table to discuss.  The art of  intelligent discussion has left Congress.  The Democrats have not presented a budget in over three years.  You can blame it on the Republicans all  you want, however, until January 2011 both the House of Representatives and the Senate were in full control of the Democratic Party, a full two years during Obama’s watch.  What stopped them then?  My point.  Nothing.

While Romney is being demonized for his wealth, President Obama has had well in excess of 100 fundraisers, celebrity dinners, expensive vacations, all not exactly cheap for the taxpayer.  While he has not reached his goal of a $1Billion war chest, his campaign donations have been higher than Romney’s. 

While there will be a lot of rhetoric yet to come on the campaign trail, it would be incumbent on the American electorate to separate the rhetoric from the facts.  Ask yourself, do you really want four more years of this President?