Friday, 27 April 2012

Canada - Conservatives and New Democrats in Statistical Tie - Nanos Poll

The constant hammering by the opposition parties and controversies seem to have had an effect on how Canadians feel about the Conservative gouvernment.  A Nik Nanos poll  has the Conservative Party in a statistical tie with the New Democratic Party.   While Stephen Harper still holds a lead as the most trusted leader, Opposition Leader Thomas Mulcair has moved up considerably in all leadership categories.  

While the Conservative Party support has remained relatively unchanged at 34.7%, the New Democrats have improved significantly at 32.4%, mostly at the cost of the Liberal Party, which has drooped 6 points to 23.3%.  Canadians also seem to like what they see in New Democratic Leader Thomas Mulcair.  Although he is still 12 percentage points behind Stephen Harper, he has picked up 33.5 points in the leadership index, while Liberal leader Bob Rae has dropped 17.9%.  All party leaders took a drop, with Stephen Harper taking the biggest loss at 36.6, definitely a good showing for the NDP leader.

Canadians still consider Stephen Harper as the most competent and trustworthy leader, although Thomas Mulcair has moved up in those categories as well.   The election of Thomas Mulcair as leader of the New Democrats has definitely had an impact.

Along with Mulcair's leadership bump and the controversies, the F35 boondoggle, robocalls, internet privacy legislation, excessive travel expenditures by some MPs, budget cuts, it would appear that the Prime Minister will have tough selling job.  This poll, however is only a blurb in time and as was shown in the Alberta election polls, they are not always accurate.  One can assume though that Mulcair has had an impact on the Canadian political scene.

Poll Details:


Between April 13th and 18th, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,200 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 1,200 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For 975 committed voters, it is accurate plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results for February 29th, 2012 are from a random telephone survey of 1,203 Canadians conducted between February 25th and 29th, 2012. A random telephone survey of 1,203 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

Conservative 34.7% (-1.0)
NDP 32.4% (+7.4)
Liberal 23.3% (-6.2)
Green 4.2% (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois 3.9% (-1.0)
*Undecided 18.8% (+2.4)

 Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Thomas Mulcair is the leader of the federal NDP, Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party and Daniel Paillé is the leader of the Bloc Quebecois. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada. (n=1,200)

Leadership Index Score

Stephen Harper 65.8 (-36.6)
Thomas Mulcair 53.8 (+33.5)
Bob Rae 36.5 (-17.9)
Elizabeth May 19.6 (-5.0)
Daniel Paillé 5.3 (-6.4)

The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=1,200)

Stephen Harper 20.0% (-11.7)
Thomas Mulcair 19.5% (+12.7)
Bob Rae 13.6% (-5.9)
Elizabeth May 8.4% (-2.9)
Daniel Paillé 2.0% (-2.3)
Unsure 20.6% (+6.8)
None 15.8% (+3.3)

The Most Competent Leader (n=1,200)

Stephen Harper 24.2% (-13.9)
Thomas Mulcair 17.0% (+11.3)
Bob Rae 12.2% (-6.5)
Elizabeth May 5.1% (-0.1)
Daniel Paillé 1.3% (-2.7)
Unsure 24.4% (+5.5)
None 15.8% (+6.5)

The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=1,200)

Stephen Harper 21.6% (-11.0)
Thomas Mulcair 17.3% (+9.5)
Bob Rae 10.7% (-5.5)
Elizabeth May 6.1% (-2.0)
Daniel Paillé 2.0% (-1.4)
Unsure 27.1% (+5.7)
None 15.2% (+4.7)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted] (n=1,200)

*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from February 29th, 2012 (n=1,203).

Jobs/economy 21.9% (-3.9)
Healthcare 21.6% (+5.7)
Education 10.1% (+4.7)
The environment 9.3% (+2.9)
High taxes 5.1% (+2.1)
Unsure 16.6% (-1.4)

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